Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.270538 3.533267 3.831101 4.199757 4.653073 5.206158 5.956884
2025-02-16 2.933540 3.270192 3.680757 4.237842 5.011277 6.121512 8.035715
2025-02-23 2.660270 3.012532 3.458682 4.095705 5.047921 6.577650 9.812192
2025-03-02 2.517138 2.890163 3.378950 4.111224 5.290661 7.442010 13.514663
2025-03-09 2.397619 2.781480 3.297614 4.100828 5.478516 8.311259 19.886062
2025-03-16 2.277705 2.659751 3.182051 4.015630 5.509457 8.876720 29.649198
2025-03-23 2.223983 2.621861 3.179259 4.103512 5.879796 10.601000 433.755310
2025-03-30 2.121829 2.509163 3.056149 3.974841 5.784210 10.911957 NaN
2025-04-06 2.027275 2.401771 2.933172 3.832641 5.631098 10.943999 NaN
2025-04-13 1.955441 2.322761 2.847566 3.745875 5.582249 11.365560 NaN
2025-04-20 1.928991 2.306448 2.855142 3.821745 5.917882 13.915117 NaN
2025-04-27 1.923509 2.319412 2.908030 3.985833 6.529697 20.379128 NaN
2025-05-04 1.883773 2.281953 2.881326 4.003061 6.788942 27.129634 NaN
2025-05-11 1.850026 2.251756 2.864338 4.037808 7.123275 43.598092 NaN
2025-05-18 1.788749 2.177690 2.771155 3.909348 6.910980 43.586332 NaN
2025-05-25 1.757698 2.147752 2.748923 3.923402 7.171813 94.768039 NaN
2025-06-01 1.724761 2.113461 2.717215 3.913989 7.355464 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.682467 2.063344 2.656301 3.836750 7.271701 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.669029 2.056624 2.668064 3.916420 7.820236 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.624832 2.001039 2.593583 3.799709 7.538092 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.580370 1.944057 2.515065 3.670264 7.187789 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.545863 1.901690 2.460422 3.591041 7.035957 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.536901 1.898405 2.472559 3.660325 7.524602 NaN NaN